Mississippi State starting pitching Konnor Pilkington in 2017 SEC Baseball Tournament (Photo taken by Jake Mastroianni)
We turn the page on the regular season, for most of the country, and focus on tournament play. We’ll focus on the 2018 SEC Baseball Tournament in this article and what we need to see from each team.
Here is a look at the 2018 SEC Baseball Tournament bracket.
Who is In:
To me, there are eight teams who are a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Nothing that happens in this tournament should keep these teams out.
Florida, Georgia, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Auburn, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina.
At this point, if you finish with a .500 record or better in the SEC you are pretty much guaranteed to make the postseason.
Later we’ll look at which of those teams could host a regional and possibly a super regional.
Who is on the Bubble:
Now I said before that if you finish with a .500 record or better you should be a lock for the postseason, but LSU is going to test that theory. Right now their RPI sits at 44, which puts them on the bubble in my opinion.
They probably get in any way, but a win on Tuesday would certainly make them a lock.
That would put nine SEC teams in the postseason, and I believe two others have a great chance of making the NCAA Tournament as well.
Texas A&M and Kentucky both have very high RPIs, but they also finished just 13-17 in SEC play. The Aggies are in the best shape with an RPI of 20, while the Wildcats aren’t far behind at 25.
Kentucky plays Auburn on Tuesday in a very winnable game, and then they could have Sean Hjelle ready to go against Ole Miss on Tuesday.
If either of these teams wins two games in the tournament then I think they are in.
You can’t count Missouri out either with an RIP of 38, but they’d likely have to make a deep run to earn an at-large spot.
Regional Hosts:
Florida, Georiga, Arkansas and Ole Miss are locks to host a regional at this point. Even if they go two-and-out in the tournament, they’ll all host a regional.
If Auburn wins on Tuesday, then they will probably host a regional as well. But to be safe, the Tigers probably need to win two games in the tournament.
Top 8 Seeds:
Seeding is extended all the way to 16 teams this year, but being a top eight seed still guarantees that super regional host. I think Florida, Georgia and Arkansas will all finish in the top eight, guaranteeing them a shot to host a super regional if they advance.
Biggest Impact Game for NCAA Tournament:
We don’t know how the tournament will unfold and what matchups we’ll see, but we do know that on Tuesday we could see an elimination game for the NCAA Tournament.
Now I do think the Bulldogs have a high enough RPI to endure a first-round loss, but it would make selection day a lot more interesting. On the other hand, LSU desperately needs a win on Tuesday to keep their tournament chances alive.
If LSU wins, they are in for me. And a loss for Mississippi State would make things interesting.
Who Will Win:
It’s impossible to predict the winner of this tournament as the top teams are more concerned with getting ready for the NCAA Tournament.
The team that typically wins this tournament is the one fighting for position in the NCAA Tournament.
I think Ole Miss and Arkansas have the best chance to win this tournament, and I had to pick a winner right now I’d go with the Razorbacks.
