May 25, 2016 – ##9 Alabama vs #1 Mississippi State
With the regular season complete, we turn our attention to the 2017 SEC Baseball Tournament and who needs some wins for the NCAA Tournament.
Florida and LSU both finished the regular season with a conference record of 21-9. The Gators won the regular season series, so I consider them the regular season champs. LSU is your SEC West champion though.
The Gators were the only SEC team to finish the regular season with 40 wins. Arkansas and LSU both had 39, while Kentucky finished with 38.
Those four teams (Florida, LSU, Kentucky and Arkansas) all earned a bye in the SEC Tournament this week.
We’ll take a look at what needs to happen for each team in the tournament this week before the NCAA Tournament.
Spoilers (Missouri and Georgia): Georgia has been playing great baseball lately winning their last three SEC series to get into the tournament. Despite all of that, they have no shot at making the NCAA Tournament, so they’ll be looking to play spoiler this week. They get things started on Tuesday against a struggling Mississippi State team that they took 2-of-3 from two weekends ago.
As for Missouri, they also come in hot after taking 2-of-3 from South Carolina two weekends ago and then sweeping Tennessee in the final weekend. Their RPI is still pretty low, so they would need to win two or three games to have a chance at an at-large bid. As the 10 seed, they’ll face Texas A&M in the first round.
Desperately Needs a Win or Two (South Carolina and Ole Miss): Somehow South Carolina is still in the NCAA Tournament conversation with a 13-17 conference record. They have a very high RPI, but I can’t see them getting in without winning a couple of games in the SEC Tournament. Even then, I’m not sure the Gamecocks deserve a tournament spot with that conference record. It won’t matter if they lose to Vanderbilt on Tuesday.
Ole Miss is also on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament, but they have a little better RPI than South Carolina and finished with a better conference record. Still, I think the Rebels need to win on Tuesday to feel safe about its NCAA Tournament chances.
Could Use a Win (Auburn, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Texas A&M): All of these teams are safe for the NCAA Tournament in my book, but they’d feel a lot more comfortable with wins on Tuesday. Not only that, but they could all use some momentum going into the NCAA Tournament.
Auburn has the lowest RPI of the group and could probably use a win the most. They’ll be facing an Ole Miss team on Tuesday after taking 2-of-3 from them this past weekend.
Texas A&M has a much easier matchup against Missouri, but the Tigers are playing much better right now. I think the Aggies have a chance to do some damage in the NCAA Tournament if they get some momentum going in the SEC Tournament.
Mississippi State needs a win just for the sake of confidence. They finished the regular season with five straight SEC losses, including a sweep from LSU in the final weekend. Losing to Georgia on Tuesday could be devastating for this team that looked like a sure-fire regional host a few weeks ago.
The Commodores have been like a sleeping giant all year that just never woke up. I know they have the talent to win the SEC and even NCAA Tournament, it’s just whether or not they start firing on all cylinders. It all starts with their first round matchup against South Carolina on Tuesday.
Looking to Host (LSU, Florida, Arkansas and Kentucky): All of these teams finished the regular season in the top 15 in RPI. In my opinion, LSU and Florida are locks to host a regional and should be locks for a top eight seed regardless of what happens in the SEC Tournament. Arkansas and Kentucky should also be locks to host a regional, but they need to do some work to earn a top eight spot.
Arkansas would probably need to win the SEC Tournament to become a top eight seed. Kentucky needs to reach the championship game to get a top eight seed.
While I think LSU and Florida are safe for a top eight seed, a win or two in the SEC Tournament wouldn’t hurt.
SEC Tournament Prediction: I think LSU will win the SEC Tournament. They are playing the best baseball of any SEC Team right now, and they always play well in Hoover and bring a large crowd. Obviously, Florida has a great chance to win it all as well.
Outside of those two, I think Vanderbilt could be a team that surprises and makes a run in the tournament.
I don’t know that Arkansas has the pitching to make a real run, but earning that bye certainly helps. The same could be said for Kentucky.
Two other teams that could get hot and make a run are Mississippi State and Texas A&M.
I would be really surprised if anyone else wins the SEC Tournament.
This should be a great week of college baseball, and I hope you all enjoy the action from Hoover, Ala. Please follow me on Twitter @ShortStopBall for SEC Tournament updates, and look for more articles on College Baseball Daily throughout the week.
