May 25, 2016 – #5 LSU vs #4 Florida
Florida has taken over the top spot in the SEC East after sweeping Ole Miss, coupled with Kentucky dropping a series against Georgia.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State is back on top of the SEC West after winning a great series against Texas A&M, while Auburn was swept at home by Alabama.
It was a really strange weekend in the SEC, but it’s setting up a fantastic finish.
At this point at least eight teams from the SEC should make the NCAA Tournament. I think at least two of those teams will earn a top eight seed, and two more will host a regional.
Here we’ll take a look at who is in or out as far as the NCAA Tournament is concerned, and we’ll focus on the SEC Tournament as well.
In and Possible Host
Florida – The Gators are 15-2 over their past 17 games and have won their last nine games. They fell off the map for a second after losing a series to Tennessee at the beginning of April, but they look like one of the best teams in the country again. With a series against Alabama this weekend they have chance for another sweep. They are definitely in the NCAA Tournament, but they’ll need to win a series against Kentucky to end the regular season, and then a couple of games in Hoover to secure a top eight seed.
Mississippi State – The Bulldogs were mighty impressive this past weekend bouncing back to win the final two games on the road against Texas A&M. They have a favorable matchup this weekend against Georgia before finishing against LSU. Like Florida, they are in the NCAA Tournament, but they need to win their last two series and then a couple of games in Hoover to secure a top eight seed.
Kentucky – I don’t know what happened to Kentucky last weekend, but losing a series to Georgia was pretty shocking. They now have some work to do in order to rejoin the top eight. They get another favorable matchup this weekend against Tennessee, but finish against a hot Florida team. They’re pretty much in the same spot as Florida and Mississippi State. They need to win their final two series and then a couple of games in the SEC Tournament to have a shot as a top eight seed.
LSU – The same could be said for LSU who has jumped back into the top eight discussion after a couple of dramatic wins over South Carolina this past weekend. Their rode to the top eight is little more difficult than the teams above as they finish against Auburn and Mississippi State. Still, once again, if they can win both of those series and two or three games in Hoover, they have a shot as a top eight seed. The fact that the top four teams will play each other in the final weekend is pretty exciting. However, it means they’ll be knocking each other out of a top eight seed. I still think two of these top four teams gets a top eight seed, and all four should host.
In the NCAA Tournament
Auburn – Getting swept at home by your rival who is the worst team in the conference will be a hard pill to swallow. Granted all three games where separated by a total of four runs, still, you have to win one of those games. Auburn went from being in and looking at a top eight seed, to being in and possible not hosting a regional. They have a pretty difficult schedule to finish playing LSU this weekend and then facing an Ole Miss team in the final weekend who will be making a push for the NCAA Tournament. I still think Auburn could host a regional, but it’s hard to see them getting back into the top eight discussion unless they do really well in Hoover.
Arkansas – The Hogs have been kind of quiet on the national scene lately, but they’re tied with Florida for the most overall wins in the SEC with 35. They had a good chance at another win this past weekend, but their third game against Tennessee was cancelled. They finish the year against Vanderbilt and Texas A&M. It would take an epic collapse for them to not make the NCAA Tournament. To host a regional at this point they’d need to win their last two series and a couple of games in Hoover.
Texas A&M – The Aggies were rolling after a game one win against Mississippi State, but dropped the last two games. They’re definitely a tournament team in my book, and a similar path as what I noted above for Arkansas would likely give them a chance to host a regional. Despite losing the series to Mississippi State, I still think Texas A&M is carrying a lot of momentum into the postseason.
Vanderbilt – Vanderbilt had another ho-hum weekend series win taking 2-of-3 from Missouri to get back over .500 in the SEC. They’ve had some chances the past couple of weekends to stack up some wins against the bottom teams in the SEC, but haven’t established their dominance. They face Arkansas this weekend before finishing against Alabama. I can’t imagine them falling apart and not making the NCAA Tournament. As long as they finish with a .500 or better record in conference, they should be good. I don’t seem them hosting a regional at this point unless they finish the season 5-1 and win three or four games in the SEC Tournament.
On the Bubble
South Carolina – The weekend started out great for the Gamecocks with a win over LSU, but they dropped the last two games and continue to fall in the SEC. They’re now 11-13 in conference and have some work to do in order to make the NCAA Tournament. However, they have a favorable schedule the rest of the way with Missouri this weekend and Georgia the next. If they win both of those series and win on Tuesday in the SEC Tournament, I think that will be good enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament. To be safe, they should probably get at least one more win in there somewhere.
Ole Miss – Ole Miss is in a similar spot as South Carolina, except they finish the season against Texas A&M and Auburn. I don’t see any way they win both of those series, but that’s what they’ll have to do in order to get into the NCAA Tournament. That, or a very deep run in Hoover.
Missouri – It would take a finish of epic proportions for Missouri to get into the NCAA Tournament at this point. They finish against South Carolina and Tennessee, and have to sweep both series to finish at .500 in the conference. Then they’d need to win a few games in the SEC Tournament.
Battle for SEC Tournament
Tennessee – The Volunteers have had back-to-back series cut short because of weather. That could possibly be a good thing for Tennessee as they possibly avoided two losses. They have the same amount of wins as Georgia for the last spot in the SEC Tournament, but they hold the tie-breaker. They finish against Kentucky and Missouri. At this point, all of these teams are just trying to avoid getting swept.
Georgia – Georgia needs to finish a game ahead of Tennessee in order to get into the SEC Tournament. The Bulldogs got a huge boost this past weekend when they took 2-of-3 from Kentucky. They finish against Mississippi State and South Carolina. They’ll need to win at least one of those series to get in.
Alabama – Talk about getting a boost, Alabama had lost 13 straight SEC games before sweeping Auburn on the road this past weekend. That might be the most shocking thing you’ll see in college baseball all year. Still, the Crimson Tide find themselves two games back of a spot in the SEC Tournament and have a lot of work left to do in order to get in. They finish the season against Florida and Vanderbilt. They’ll need to at least win both of those series to have a chance.
