May 25, 2016 – ##9 Alabama vs #1 Mississippi State
There are just four weekends left in the regular season for SEC baseball teams, and things are tight at the top of the conference.
There are 10 teams with 9-9 or better records, and Mississippi State has the best record in the conference at 13-5. Arkansas, Auburn and Kentucky are right behind them at 12-6 and then it dips down with three teams at 10-8 and three more at 9-9.
Needless to say, there is still a lot to be decided in the final month of the regular season.
As is stands, Kentucky is the highest ranked team in the conference at six according to the NCBWA with Auburn right behind them at seven after taking 2-of-3 at home from Arkansas last weekend.
Florida and Mississippi State are also in the top 10 at nine and 10 respectively. LSU, Arkansas and Texas A&M are also in the top 25 with South Carolina falling out after dropping 2-of-3 to Florida last weekend.
There really aren’t any great matchups this weekend other than Auburn-Miss. State, so some of the contenders should have the opportunity to pick up some wins.
Let’s get into the matchups.
Weekend Matchups:
Florida at Georgia
Right now Georgia is battling Tennessee for that last spot in the SEC Tournament as they both have 5-13 records. The Bulldogs won’t find much luck against the Gators this weekend. Florida is coming off a much needed series win over South Carolina in which they gave up just 9 runs. Alex Faedo was brilliant in game one tossing 8.2 innings of shutout baseball with 9 strikeouts. Georgia might as well concede game one. However, the Bulldogs beat Georgia Tech during the week – their second win over the Yellow Jackets this season. The Gators only have one sweep all season, but they should get their second this weekend.
Prediction: Florida 3-0
LSU at Alabama
This Alabama team is just pathetic – there’s no other way to put it. In their last 14 games they have two wins, and those are over UAB and Alcorn State. They’ve now lost 10 straight SEC games, and they lost at home to Jacksonville State on Tuesday. Things won’t get much easier against LSU this weekend who is looking to bounce back from a series loss at Kentucky last weekend. There really isn’t much to say about this one. I would be shocked if LSU didn’t come away with three wins the way Alabama has been playing lately.
Prediction: LSU 3-0
Kentucky at South Carolina
I’ve been tooting my own horn all year, and I’ll continue to toot it, because I was right about Kentucky. They have proven that they’re the best team in the SEC right now. But all that can change in one weekend. They now travel to face a South Carolina team that is hungry for a big series win after dropping a couple of close games on the road at Florida last weekend. However, the Gamecocks will be without ace Clarke Schmidt for the remainder of the season. That’s a huge blow to this team, and that could be the difference in who wins this series. There are still a lot of bullets in that South Carolina pitching staff, and I can’t wait to see how they fare against Kentucky’s powerful offense.
Prediction: Kentucky 2-1
Ole Miss at Arkansas
Ole Miss is back in the thick of things after taking 2-of-3 from Missouri last weekend. We said the winner of that matchup had a chance to get back in it, and that’s the case. Now the Rebels will try to follow that up with a series win on the road against an Arkansas team that just lost 2-of-3 at Auburn. This should be a very interesting matchup as Arkansas is second in the conference with a .294 batting average, while Ole Miss is first in the conference with a 2.98 ERA. Arkansas’ starters did not last long against Auburn, and it exposed their lack of pitching depth. If Ole Miss can use that same formula this weekend they can come away with a huge series win on the road.
Prediction: Ole Miss 2-1
Texas A&M at Missouri
Watch out for the Aggies making a late season push here with four straight series wins. They started the season as one of the best teams in the country, but got off to a slow start in conference play. Now they’ve turned things around. Missouri also started off the season on fire, but since cooling off they haven’t been able to get it going again. In a pivotal series at Arkansas last weekend they dropped the final two games. Now they are in desperate need of a series win at home against Texas A&M. The Aggies rank sixth in the conference with a .280 batting average, while Missouri is eighth at .277. Meanwhile, The Aggies rank fourth with a 3.38 team ERA and Missouri is right behind them at 3.40. These are two evenly matched teams, so it should be an exciting series. I just like the way Texas A&M is playing right now.
Prediction: Texas A&M 2-1
Tennessee at Vanderbilt
Well, Vanderbilt didn’t get the sweep over Georgia that I was looking for, but they did at least win 2-of-3 on the road. Now they get Tennessee at home and another chance at a sweep. The pitching staff gave up just six runs to Georgia last weekend, and they got a brilliant performance from Kyle Wright. Tennessee played a couple of tight games with Texas A&M before scratching away a win on Sunday. The Volunteers are a scrappy bunch, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they shock the Commodores with a series win. For Vanderbilt’s sake, I hope that’s not the case.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 2-1
Auburn at Mississippi State
Now we get to the marquee matchup of the weekend. For the second straight weekend Auburn will play the top team in the SEC West. Last weekend they took 2-of-3 from Arkansas, while Mississippi State swept Alabama. Both teams have won 5-of-6 conference series this year. They are four and five in the conference in team batting average, and they’re 10 and 13 in team ERA. Those ERA numbers are a bit deceiving as both teams have great starters on Friday and Saturday, but the bullpen and Sunday has inflated those numbers. Auburn’s ace, Casey Mize, missed last weekend’s series against Arkansas. He threw a bullpen on Wednesday and the coaches will make a decision on Thursday morning. If he’s not able to go this weekend that could tip the scale in favor of the hosting Bulldogs.
Prediction: Mississippi State 2-1
