TCU beat Coastal Carolina 6-1 Tuesday night at TD Ameritrade Park in Omaha, Neb. (Photo by Michelle Bishop)
Although the Florida Gators entered Omaha the overwhelming favorites (+160) to win the 2016 College World Series (CWS), the Big 12 had the best betting odds to send a team to the finals with the TCU Horned Frogs, Oklahoma State Cowboys, and Texas Tech Red Raiders each representing the nine-team baseball league in the field of eight. The Gators are gone, and TCU and Oklahoma State should top the oddsboard when sports books adjust CWS futures prices once the Elimination Brackets end and the Semifinals are solidified later in the week. Both teams are Omaha’s only remaining undefeated (2-0), topping the Winner’s Brackets through two rounds. If history is to judge, the tournament is theirs to lose.
One has to go all the way back to 1989 to find a champion that did not start the CWS with a 2-0 record. Wichita State, under the leadership of the great Gene Stephenson, last accomplished the feat, losing in the second round to perennial powerhouse Florida State before rallying to close out its last four games and beat Texas in the finals. This was the same year the NCAA first incorporated two double elimination pools, with the winners meeting in a single game to crown college baseball’s best. Since 2003, the championship is settled by a best-of-three series in the final round.
Both TCU and Oklahoma State are red-hot. The Horned Frogs, who were +700 to win it all before the first pitch, are 16-2 in its last 18 games, outscoring opponents 43-18 since the start of the NCAA Tournament. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are 11-2 in their last 13 games. Coach Jim Schlossnagle’s men were the bookmaker’s co-second choice with the now departed Miami Hurricanes at +500 at the start of festivities. After giving up 25 runs combined to TCU and the Texas Longhorns in the final two games of the Big 12 Baseball Championship, the staff has yielded just six runs in seven NCAA Tournament games and own an astonishing 0.71 ERA.
The likelihood both meet up in the CWS Finals is high with 18 of the last 26 final rounds paired with teams winning their first two games in Nebraska. Its tough to forecast their impending odds, but bettors may have a chance to shop around multiple sports books to find a price where wagering each returns a profit if either win out. This is particularly true if the Arizona Wildcats and Texas Tech Raiders win their respective Elimination Bracket games over the next two days to newcomers the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and UC Santa Barbara Gauchos.
If not, here is an angle worth considering. Since 1990, the eventual winner produced a run differential through the first two games of the CWS greater than or equal to the runner up in all but five seasons. In this department, TCU holds the edge over Oklahoma State by five runs, beating Texas Tech and Coastal Carolina 5-3 and 6-1 respectively. The Cowboys’ first two victories are just as impressive, though, as they became the first team to toss consecutive 1-0 shutouts in CWS history with wins over UC Santa Barbara and Arizona. The two Big 12 programs split four head-to-head matchups this season by an equal 31-31 scoring margin.
The best bet is that the Big 12 is in the driver seat to win its first CWS since Texas topped Florida in two games in 2005.
Jay Pryce
