The 2016 College World Series (CWS) is a little more than a month away (June 18-29), and now is the time for bettors to begin their homework. Conference tournaments are nearly a week out, which will help decide entrants into the 64-team double elimination showdown set to begin in early June. With it comes updated championship odds from betting sites such as Bookmaker, Heritage Sports and BetOnline. To beat the books, start to learn top contenders inside and out.
In recent years, the CWS is much like“March Madness” in college basketball, in that upsets are ripe and value abundant for bettors. Since 2011, when the rules committee adopted dampening bats and sped up the pace of play, pitching is more dominant than ever. Small ball is the name of the game, giving underdogs a decent shot at victory if they can keep a contest close.
Only one of the last five CWS winners were awarded National seeds honors entering the tournament, or those selected to host Super Regionals if advancing through the first round. These teams are typically elite programs, ranking in the top 25 for much of the season. But that doesn’t necessarily equate to success in the CWS format. In four of the last five seasons, four or fewer National seeds even made it to Omaha. Moreover, only one has won it all (South Carolina, 2011).
To get a feel for potential National seeds, let’s take a look at the current (May 2, 2016) Top 25 Coaches Poll—these guys know best, right?—and CWS futures prices prior to the season (February 2016):
| Team | Pre-season Odds | Current Rank (05-02-2016) |
| Florida | +500 | 1 |
| Louisville | +800 | 6 |
| Vanderbilt | +1000 | 5 |
| Texas A&M | +1200 | 2 |
| Miami Florida | +1400 | 3 |
| LSU | +1600 | 15 |
| Oregon State | +1600 | 13 |
| California | +2200 | N/R |
| Virginia | +2200 | 16 |
| UL Lafayette | +2300 | 21 |
| Oklahoma State | +2400 | 19 |
| Mississippi State | +3000 | 4 |
| Oregon | +3000 | N/R |
| UCLA | +3000 | N/R |
| CS Fullerton | +4000 | N/R |
As you can see, the oddsmakers’ top five favorites to win the tournament back in February are the coaches’ top choices with the regular-season close to ending. Florida, Louisville, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Miami will almost assuredly get National seed honors and likely be overvalued when the odds are updated.
Zero-in on defending champions Virginia, and powerhouse programs North Carolina, South Carolina, Stanford, Rice, and Cal-State Fullerton. The latter five rank in the top 25 for lowest ERA in the nation. These programs have the pedigree to compete, and the pieces to win-out a best two-of-three series versus any school in the nation.
Jay Pryce
