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College Baseball Daily continues our countdown to the start of the 2016 NCAA Tournament with our weekly Regional Projections. These are done as if the teams finished the season on Monday. As has been the case this year, there is a major disparity towards the south schools due to the weak west coast baseball this season. You can check out the full brackets below.
| 1. Florida (1) 2. Georgia Tech 3. Cal 4. Binghamton * | 1. UC Santa Barbara 2. Arizona 3. New Mexico * 4. Oral Roberts |
| 1. NC State (8) 2. Creighton * 3. Kentucky 4. Canisius * | 1. North Carolina 2. UNCW * 3. BYU * 4. Utah * |
| 1. Texas A&M (4) 2. TCU 3. Dallas Baptist * 4. Northwestern State | 1. Texas Tech * 2. Rice 3. Southeast Missouri 4. Alabama State * |
| 1. Miami (FL) (5) * 2. Georgia 3. Florida Atlantic 4. Princeton * | 1. Louisiana Lafayette 2. Tulane 3. SE Louisiana * 4. Kennesaw State * |
| 1. South Carolina (3) * 2. East Carolina 3. Pittsburgh 4. Seattle * | 1. Coastal Carolina * 2. Virginia 3. VCU * 4. UNCG * |
| 1. Florida State (6) 2. LSU 3. Lamar 4. Florida A&M * | 1. Mississippi State 2. Southern Miss * 3. Cal State Fullerton * 4. Notre Dame |
| 1. Ole Miss (7) 2. Wake Forest 3. South Alabama * 4. Navy * | 1. Clemson 2. Bryant * 3. Washington 4. Wright State * |
| 1. Louisville (2) 2. Michigan 3. New Orleans 4. Cincinnati * | 1. Vanderbilt 2. Oklahoma State 3. Minnesota * 4. Kent State * |
CONFERENCE CHAMPS
| Conference | Projected Champ |
| America East | Binghamton |
| American Athletic Conference | Cincinnati |
| Atlantic 10 | VCU |
| ACC | Miami (FL) |
| Atlantic Sun | Kennesaw State |
| Big 10 | Minnesota |
| Big 12 | Texas Tech |
| Big East | Creighton |
| Big South | Coastal Carolina |
| Big West | Cal State Fullerton |
| CAA | UNC-Wilmington |
| Conference USA | Southern Miss |
| Horizon League | Wright State |
| Ivy League | Princeton |
| MAAC | Canisius |
| MAC | Kent State |
| MEAC | Florida A&M |
| Missouri Valley | Dallas Baptist |
| Mountain West | New Mexico |
| Northeast Conference | Bryant |
| Ohio Valley Conference | Southeast Missouri |
| Pac-12 | Utah |
| Patriot League | Navy |
| SEC | South Carolina |
| Southern Conference | UNCG |
| Southland Conference | SE Louisiana |
| SWAC | Alabama State |
| Summit League | Oral Roberts |
| Sun Belt | South Alabama |
| West Coast Conference | BYU |
| WAC | Seattle University |
14 comments
The committee usually rights the wrongs that the rpi presents. Clearly ole miss as a national seed and MSU not a national is a wrong that I believe the committee will fix. Just compare the schedules folks.
Ole Miss has played a much more difficult OOC. It isn’t even close while Mississippi State was beating up on Lowell (transitional d-2 school) and Eastern Kentucky.
Brian Foley
I think you need to go back and compare the two schedules. And if you’re wearing red & blue glasses, you gotta take those off. Yes, State played Lowell (twice) and Eastern Kentucky, but OM played 3 games against Grambling! Each team’s RPI took a hit when playing Memphis, but OM played them twice. State’s game against MVSU was pretty damaging, though.
OM’s games against Louisville (3 times at home) and Coastal Carolina (1) were helpful to the OOC schedule strength. But State played Oregon (3 times), Florida Atlantic (twice), Oral Roberts, South Alabama, Southern Cal (road), UCLA (road), and Oklahoma (road). Those last 3 are top notch programs, but are having down years. I would point out, though, that USC and UCLA were ranked top 15 at the time. Oregon was #9.
Then you add State’s ROAD SERIES VICTORIES against Florida, Vandy, & LSU and the unfortunate A&M debacle versus OM’s series against a horrible Tennessee and Auburn, an unranked Arkansas, and a debacle of their own against S. Carolina. Each played Bama on the road which is a wash.
Oh, not to mention OM lost 3 out of 4 games to STATE!
If you can compare those two schedules and take into account what State has accomplished on the road and still think that the RPI is not flawed, I can’t help you. But you can’t say I didn’t try!
I don’t care what they were ranked at the time of the game. Those teams are not good.
Those Louisville wins in my book tip the scales as both teams are at the same level.
The RPI doesn’t care. I understand that. I think the committee will give those games a little more credence than the computers. That’s all I’m saying.
Regarding your obsession with Ole Miss winning 2 of 3 at home against #2 Louisville, why wouldn’t you counter that with Mississippi State’s winning 2 of 3 on the road against the #1 team? In fact that’s MORE impressive. And State took 3 out of 4 against Ole Miss for the season! But I’ve noticed you always steer away from admitting that. You only point out how Ole Miss’s ONE win against State worked in their favor. Unbelievable! I’m not putting any credibility into this publication. I appreciate any civil discussions on college baseball, but you’re too much of an Ole Miss homer.
I could care less about Ole Miss, Mississippi State, or any school. Both teams mean nothing to me. I am a numbers guy and have always but I have only predicted the correct hosts for 10 straight years now.
Well there must be something going on there. I was using Boydsworld for the RPI, but I checked out the WarrenNolan link you posted. There lies the very point I’m trying to make. You said “According to WarrenNolan, Ole Miss non-conference strength of schedule
is 24th in the country while Mississippi State is a nice and tidy 179.”
Did you not take into account the very number that is sitting right above that? The OVERALL SOS!!
Ole Miss…9
Mississippi State…7
Gee……I can’t imagine why anyone would think you have a bias.
Mississippi State has played 11 games against teams with 201+ RPI. That is not done on accident as any coach can easily pick the teams that are going to be that bad. BTW, they are 10-1 in those games.
Ole Miss has only played 6 against the same level squads and a perfect 6-0.
A huge disparity there!
According to WarrenNolan, Ole Miss non-conference strength of schedule is 24th in the country while Mississippi State is a nice and tidy 179.
http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2016/nitty-team
Fullerton as conf champs but a 3 seed. UCSB hosting. That seems odd, since Fullerton would ostensibly have beaten UCSB to win the Big West.
It is done if the season ended today and since Fullerton is in first they are conference champs for this.
Sent from my iPad
ULL wont host, they wont even win conference in 2nd currently, and been swepts by LSU and Tulane.
After last years experience why would the NCAA choose Santa Barbara as a host school and where would the actually host? They should be required to host at UCSB if they are chosen and bring in temporary lights and stands to accommodate the privilege.
They played off-campus last season at a minor league park. There are options in that area for them to host. The NCAA actually needs west coast hosts
Anytime the host is knocked out before the championship and goes 0-2, the attendance is going to be awful.
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