The 2015 NCAA College Baseball Tournament is in its second week of play and from an original national field of 64 schools, 16 remain. They will meet in eight Super Regionals, which are best 2-of-3 showdowns with a spot in the College World Series on the line.
There are several intriguing matchups across the board, including an upstart Maryland team that sent overall No. 1 seed UCLA home for the summer and a VCU squad that has all the makings of a Cinderella story.
But when it comes to future MLB prospects, the Champaign Super Regional stands far above the rest of the field. Illinois and Vanderbilt alone have at least four first round picks between them, while there are close to eight total draftees sprinkled across the two rosters.
NCAA defending champion Vanderbilt (45-19) boasts two players that are finalists for the Golden Spikes Award, an accolade given annually to the country’s top amateur player. In addition, three Commodores — shortstop Dansby Swanson and right-handed pitchers Walker Buehler and Carson Fulmer — are all expected to hear their names called in the first round of the MLB June Amateur Draft.
As for the Fighting Illini (50-8-1), two of their left-handed hurlers could be selected in the first round— in Big Ten Pitcher of the Year Tyler Jay and second team All-American Kevin Duchene.
Runs may be hard to come by in Champaign this weekend, as both teams sport a strong and diverse pitching staff. The series will feature some of the best arms in the nation, the likely No. 1 overall draft pick and three semi-finalists for the Pitcher of the Year Award (Duchene, Fulmer and Jay).
A Closer Look at Vanderbilt
Carson Fulmer, a 6-foot-0, 195-pound right-handed junior, won the first SEC pitching Triple Crown since 2005, leading the league in wins (12), strikeouts (147) and ERA (1.92) during the regular season. The 2015 All-American and SEC Pitcher of the Year is the only player in the league with an earned runs average under two.
The Golden Spikes finalist worked seven solid innings in his regional start, giving up one run with 11 strikeouts in the Commodores’ 9-1 victory over Lipscomb. Fulmer is considered a top-10 draft prospect thanks to his three-pitch mix of curveball, changeup and an above average fastball.
Fulmer is slated to be the game one starter on Saturday.
Walker Buehler is a 6-2, 175-pound draft eligible junior who Baseball America has the Detroit Tigers selecting with the 22nd pick of the first round. The wiry right-hander is 4-2 with a 2.97 ERA and has fanned 81 batters in 78 2/3 innings. Buehler was the beneficiary of the 21-run whooping that Vanderbilt put on Radford in the Nashville Regional final, tossing five innings and striking out seven. He can also pitch out of the pen, and did so during while helping Vanderbilt to the College World Series title in 2014.
Fourth-year junior Philip Pfeifer (4-4, 4.21 ERA, 101 K, 37 BB) threw six innings while fanning 10 in his regional start. The Vanderbilt staff, which leads the country with an average of 9.8 K-per-9 innings, registered 39 strikeouts in the three regional games.
The Commodores are hitting .293/.385/.462 as a team. They’ve outscored opponents 440-233 and rank in the Top-10 nationally in hits (657), doubles (139), triples (27), homers (62) and are 11th in walks (283).
The main cog of Vanderbilt’s offense is shortstop and Golden Spikes Award finalist Dansby Swanson — who could potentially be the No. 1 overall draft pick of the Arizona Diamondbacks. The 6-foot-1, 190-pound junior is the SEC leader in hits (85), runs scored (69) and total bases (160) and ranks second with 60 RBI. He’s batting .348/.443/.656 with 22 doubles, 14 homers and 15 stolen bases.
Swanson went 3-for-10 at the plate last weekend and finished with one home run, three RBI, three walks and four runs scored to earn Nashville Regional MVP honors.
Fourth-year junior Zander Wiel (.318/.410/.567) went 4-for-6 with a homer, a triple and six RBI in Vanderbilt’s rout of Radford.
The underclassmen have also come through in a big way. Sophomore leadoff hitter Ro Coleman (.308/.418/.421) smacked four hits against Radford and reached base 13 times in the three games in the regional. Outfielder Jeren Kendall (.291/.408/.538), third baseman Will Toffey (.309/.382/.443) and pitcher Kyle Wright (5-1, 1.09 ERA, 53 K, 21 BB) have all been tabbed freshmen All-Americans.
A Closer Look at Illinois
Illinois is playing Super Regional host for the first time in program history. The No. 6 national-seeded Illini (50-8-1) matched Vanderbilt’s 3-0 record in the regionals, though; they didn’t have a dramatic 21-0 blow-out win along the way. The Illini did, however, give up just seven runs in those three wins.
Kevin Duchcene (11-1, 1.46 ERA, 86 K) will be Fulmer’s counterpart on the bump Saturday night. The southpaw tossed his first complete game in his regional start against Ohio. He didn’t show his usual control; notching a single strikeout and walking three Bobcats after issuing just 12 free passes all season.
But he battled through a rough two innings that saw the Illini fall behind 2-1 and his teammates provided plenty of run support in the 10-3 victory that put Illinois in the winner’s bracket with Notre Dame.
Fifth-year senior righty Drasen Johnson (10-3, 2.01 ERA, 77 K) should get the ball on Sunday. He shined last Sunday, recording his fifth career complete game and first-ever shutout in a 3-0 victory over Notre Dame. He stuck out six, scattered five hits and walked one on 106 pitches.
Senior John Kravetz (5-0, 3.35 ERA) could be the third starter if needed for Illinois, but the Illini also have their not-so-secret weapon in all-universe closer Tyler Jay.
A First Team All-American, Jay (5-1) has given up just four earned runs in 60.1 innings for a miniscule 0.60 ERA. The junior southpaw saw limited action in the regional, where he notched five strikeouts in four shutout innings. Mock draft boards have the Big Ten Pitcher of the Year as a consensus top-5 pick, and likely the No. 3 overall pick of the Colorado Rockies.
Under the supervision of junior backstop Jason Goldstein, the Illini’s stable of high-quality arms rank in the top-5 nationally in nearly every pitching category: No. 3 in ERA (2.42), No. 4 in BB/9 (2.10) and WHIP (1.11), and No. 5 in K/BB ratio (3.45).
The 2015 Illini pitching staff (435 K) broke the school record for strikeouts from 1998 (419 K). Their 2.42 ERA is also on pace to shatter the school’s ERA record (3.25) from last season. The Illini only used five pitchers last weekend, but they probably won’t be as lucky this weekend facing a lineup as potent as Vanderbilt’s.
The Illini offense is fueled by senior and third team All-American David Kerian. Kerian was the Most Outstanding Player of the Champaign Regional, hitting .625/.750/1.625 with two home runs, two doubles and five RBI to go along with four walks. The Big Ten Player of the Year also leads the conference in batting average (.376) while hitting a career-high 16 home runs to go with 52 RBI.
Fifth-year senior second baseman Reid Roper (.302/.412/.502) has 49 RBI with a team-high four triples and junior Ryan Nagle (.329/.392/.439) has laced a team-high 18 doubles.
Illinois tallied 33 hits in their three games last weekend, but it’s hard to imagine them maintaining that kind of offensive output against the defending NCAA champions. It’s also difficult to see either Fulmer or Duchene faltering on Saturday night. But something has to give, and in a series where the game plan for both teams is to make it hard for the other to plate runs, experience and sheer bullpen depth gives the edge to Vanderbilt.
Game One
When/Where: 7 p.m., Illinois Field
TV: ESPNU
RHP Carson Fulmer (12-2, 1.92) vs. LHP Kevin Duchene (11-1, 1.46)
Game Two
When/Where: 8 p.m., Illinois Field
TV: ESPNU
Pitchers: TBA
Game Three (If Necessary)
When/Where: TBA, Illinois Field
TV: TBA
Pitchers: TBA
